Prospects of General Election?

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Prospects of General Election?

Logically, there are many possibilities in terms of when to call for a general election: 1) at the end of the current regular Diet session; 2) at the end of the autumn Special Diet Session; 3) around mid-November to end of the year (after November 12, when the tenth anniversary of the current Emperor's reign will be marked in a government-sponsored celebration); 4) around end of January (before the regular Diet session convenes); 5) early summer next year (after the Okinawa Summit); or 6) autumn next year (after he finishes his term).

The first scenario is out of the question since this will eliminate the possibility to extend the current Diet session, the chances for the opposition party placing a no-confidence vote on the agenda is very slim and the coalition of the three parties is opposed to any early dissolution of the Diet (by joining the coalition, Komeito is not obliged to honor the opposition for an early dissolution). It is very unlikely that the second scenario would occur since the Komeito is also opposed to it.

There is also no possibility for the sixth scenario to take place since Obuchi, if out of office can no longer dictate the initiative in the general election. Ideally, it should take place after the Okinawa Summit when the mood is optimistic, which could provide a boost for Obuchi's government. Nonetheless, there are several things Obuchi needs to consider before making his decision on the sixth scenario. First, with the nursing care insurance program scheduled to begin next April, it is unpredictable how the public would react to the increased tax burden in light of the sagging economy. Secondly, whether the Okinawa Summit will be successful or not cannot be predicted.

Therefore, the most likely scenario for a general election is around the end of the year or early next year. From Obuchi's perspective, the third scenario offers him the most: 1) he would still have public support; 2) through a revised budget and the revitalization of industrial policy, there is a possibility of an economic rebound; and 3) it would take place before the effects of nursing care insurance program is felt.

What sort of general election will it be? Although the Komeito is betting its life on the revival of the medium-sized district system, there is little possibility of this happening in next six months, even though it has cooperated fully, without hesitation and shame, with the LDP on the Guidelines Bill and the Eavesdropping Bill. There is no hope that these bills will be enacted within the next six months, and the country will be held to the present small electoral district system. If and when all three parties cooperate fully, they could win over 400 seats, which would create the ultimate conservative party. However, in reality, it is almost impossible for the three parties to adjust their individual strategies to cooperate fully with one another.

If all three parties were to face the general election on their own, the LDP would win, at most, around 239 seats. A more likely scenario would be around 220 to 230, which would be less than current 266 seats. Evidently, since the fall of Miyazawa government six years ago, the public has become adamant about "not giving the LDP a majority in the House," and this trend is likely to continue. The current 266 seats does not represent public support; the LDP only picked up seats after the Progressive Party crumbled.

Similarly, Komeito would likely to lose half of their existing seats (52) while the Liberal Party would lose more than 19 seats out of the currently held 39. Therefore, collaboration with the LDP is their last resort for survival. On the other hand, for the LDP to hang on to its coalition and to be able to create circumstances where they can say "the efforts of Obuchi government have been approved by the public since the coalition has won a majority," they need to put together some sort of election collaboration. However, in reality, it would be difficult for all three parties to adjust their positions. Consequently, we would see only a symbolic collaboration in districts which have little friction. In that cas e, the effect of this cooperation would be limited with almost no merit to the LDP and perhaps some merit for the Komeito and the Liberal Party in terms of sustaining their numbers.

Evidently, judging from the Tokyo gubernatorial election, when the LDP collaborated with the Komeito in support of candidate Yasuhiro Akashi and the fact that Komeito is linked with Sokagakkai, particularly in big cities, makes true conservatives critical of any collaboration with them. Additionally, religious groups who are anti-Sokagakkai and non-affiliated parties are skeptical of their motives for collaboration with the Komeito, thereby negating the effect of any collaboration.

Contrary to Obuchi's intention to induce Komeito to collaborate with the LDP in order to pass the Guidelines Bill prior to his departure to the United States in order to prolong his political life, Komeito has become a liability for his government and might be his downfall. To begin with, Komeito had lost its political power and influence when the honorary chairman Daisaku Ikeda said "it might have been a mistake to create Komeito." Initially, Komeito entered politics to propagate its religious precepts by mobilizing their followers politically, which they did successfully. Nonetheless, when they had attained a certain amount of political clout, they were faced with Ikeda's personal scandal, financial irregularities within Sokagakkai and repeated LDP summons of Ikeda to the Diet. As a result, rather than propagating their religion, they found themselves defending it and their founder. Naturally, Ikeda may well had wish he had never created Komeito in order to enter politics, thereby relieving himself and the party of the constant enmity of the LDP.

Komeito strived to become secular party began during the Takeiri and Yano era. It had endured the Ishida and Ichikawa era during the Hosokawa government and thought they found a home when the Progressive Party was created. Yet, when the party broke down, they were back to being Komeito. Consequently, unless Komeito could appeal to the public as a political party rather than being seem as an arm of a religious group, it would most likely become a pathetic drifter. If their immediate objective is to sustain their influence by tagging along with the larger parties without placing any priority on their political beliefs. If the party's only objective is 'survival,' it is no longer in the position to exercise the deciding vote.

Take for an example when the Komeito collaborated with the LDP to pass the Guidelines Bill and the Eavesdropping Bill. This collaboration with the LDP on these issues represents a very repulsive act for the Soka Gakkai. During their long history, many of their youth groups as well as its women's division have devoted their efforts to the anti-war and peace movement. Furthermore, to advocate a revival of the medium constituency electoral system for their own survival is nothing more a criminal act against the public who wish to see progress in this area.

With that perspective, Komeito has entered a black hole. As long as Komeito has certain number of seats, the LDP would be likely to use it, but if the party loses half its seats in the next election, its value decreases by half or maybe even less. And, in the next general election, if they lose almost all of their seats, nobody would even consider reviving the medium constituency electoral system. Thus, the value of Komeito is diminishing in the eyes of everyone except perhaps Komeito members themselves.

As for the Liberal Party, after their expected utter defeat in the next election, Ichiro Ozawa, who is the highest ranking party official most likely resign and the rest would probably move into the LDP. Instead of waiting for the right opportunity to create a new party with the best people, Ozawa's strategy to use the LDP to take an initiative in policy making, appealing to the public for its existence and sustaining its influence by collaborating on election campaigns, has ended in complete failure. For instance, the Guidelines Bill does not have the remotest resemblance to Ozawa's security philosophy. Unless Ozawa can participate in the power politics to have the LDP at the edge of their seats, nobody will listen to him and his political life will ended.

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