It is most likely that he will be re-elected as the LDP President
in the election which is likely to take place around end of August or early
September. Yet, as policy making is Obuchi's weak point, he has, through a
third party, tried vigorously to persuade Koichi Kato not to run against
him, especially as Kato is a eloquent speaker and perceived as a acute
politician. Most likely, Kato has been promised that if he allows the
automatic re-election of Obuchi, he would be handed the seat as the next
Prime Minister. Additionally, Nonaka, the Chief Secretary of Public
Relations, has been whispering in Kato's ear that even if Obuchi is
re-elected, he may not be able to hold on to the seat for another two years.
In my opinion, rather than engaging in this clandestine activity, Kato
should, whether he wins or loses, announce his candidacy by consolidating
his faction, which he high-handedly took over from Minister of Finance
Miyazawa. This would publicize the fact that he is aiming for the
post-Obuchi position.
In the 1995 presidential election, fearing a challenge from
Ryutaro Hashimoto, former President Yohei Kono withdrew his name since he
would have had to compete within the same faction. As a result, Kono, a one
time prime minister, has faded into a background of power politics with
little attention now being paid to him. Having first hand experience in
seeing what happened to Kono, Kato would not like to see himself in the
same situation.
One nerve wrecking factor which Kato must take into consideration is
that if he defies Obuchi and Nonaka's wishes, he could become an outcast
along with Taku Yamazaki, once the presidential election is over and a
reshuffling of the executive committee takes place. However, taking into
consideration that Obuchi dislikes disputes which tip the balance of power
one way or another, it is unlikely that he would be given special treatment
in the name of the party. In anticipation of this, Kato actively advocate
"a clean election, without the bitter feelings". Although public debate is
not Obuchi's forte, since his days in Takeshita faction he has excelled in
behind the scene vote getting. Thus, re-election is not considered a
problem for him.
In a presidential election, each of the 371 Diet Members has one
vote, and there are three million general party members each with 1/10000
vote - 10,000 votes equal to one vote of a Diet Member. On the Diet Member
level, the Obuchi faction has 93 votes, Yoshiro Mori, the
Secretary-General's faction has 62, and the Murakami-Kamei faction, which
has been non-mainstream until now, has 60. This adds up a total of 215
votes. Moreover, Obuchi has secured 16 more votes with Kono group, which
is anti-Kato, thereby securing over 60% of the votes or around 230. On the
party member level, as the Obuchi faction includes members from the Upper
House with strong support groups, he is likely to win over 60 to maybe 70%
of the votes. Thus, there is little or no chance for Kato to win this
election.
For Obuchi, the election is not his main concern. It is the
re-shuffling of key party officials afterwards which worries him.
Currently, the three principle party posts are occupied by M and YKK, who
have occupied the post since the Hashimoto era. However, since Y and K are
challenging Obuchi, it has become necessary to change the composition.
Mori, on the other hand, has already indicated his support for Obuchi. By
avoiding confrontation, Mori's strategy is to attain a better position over
Kato, which Obuchi must respect. The Murakami and Kamei faction are at the
end of their rope since in their eyes, Obuchi has repeatedly failed to meet
his end of the bargain. In January, when the coalition between the Liberal
Party and the LDP was inaugurated, they sought one of the three principle
posts in the party. To their dismay, Obuchi decided to put off the
decision. Instead, he insinuated that a re-shuffling would take place in
the spring when the budget was passed. Once again, Obuchi retracted and the
re-shuffling did not take place at that time.
As a result of all this, Obuchi must now decided whether he should
divide the party post among the new mainstream Obuchi, Mori and Kamei
faction or whether he should, once again, let the Kato faction have a post
instead in order to achieve party unanimity. The former strategy is risky
since it places the Kato and Yamazaki faction as an outcast. If Kato feels
unappreciated, the Democratic Party might take the opportunity to persuade
him to take the plunge and try and create a liberal government. However, it
is very unlikely that Kato, who epitomizes mainstream conservative spirit,
would rebel against or leave the LDP. He believes that the only possible
way for him to cooperate with the Democratic Party (DP) is if and when he
takes over the LDP. Thus, I cannot see him being easily swayed by the DP.
Nonetheless, if and when the Liberal Party and the Komeito stay on the
sidelines, a fragile balance could be established within the Lower House
between the DP plus the Kato and Yamazaki faction versus the LDP minus two
factions. Another possible scenario is that if the Liberal Party cooperates
with the LDP but the Komeito cooperates with Kato plus the DP instead of the
LDP, a Kato government would be a sure thing.
If the strategy for the three coalition parties is to even close to
this scenario, it is very unlikely that Obuchi would let Kato become an
outcast. By this logic, it would be better for Obuchi to cater to Kato's
ego. Yet, if he allows this to happen, Kamei would most likely raise his
voice saying something like "a presidential election should be final. Why
should Kato have preferential treatment?" Above all, Obuchi's own faction
would vigorously complain, demanding to know why they, as the largest
faction, cannot attain one of the three principle positions in the party.
If and when that occurs, will Obuchi's "we cannot fight in the general
election without unity in the party" strategy work? |
What's New
Index
Next